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What's in Store for Boston Properties (BXP) in Q1 Earnings?

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Boston Properties, Inc. (BXP - Free Report) is scheduled to report first-quarter 2020 results on Apr 28, after market close. The company’s results are expected to reflect year-over-year growth in funds from operations (FFO) per share and revenues.

In the last reported quarter, this office real estate investment trust’s (REIT) FFO of $1.64 per share surpassed estimates by 1.1%. Results were backed by greater-than-projected portfolio performance and higher occupancy.

Over the preceding four quarters, the company beat the FFO per share estimates on all occasions, the average positive surprise being 2.06%. This is depicted in the graph below:

Boston Properties, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
 

Its outlook for first-quarter 2020 FFO per share is $1.80-$1.82. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pinned at the lower end of the company’s guidance at $1.80.

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

In fact, report from Newmark Knight Frank suggests that the U.S. office market was unstable during first-quarter 2020. The ongoing coronavirus pandemic and the consequent economic downturn have ended the longest business expansion, also hauling methodological growth witnessed by the US office market.  In fact, in the latter half of the quarter, most investment and leasing activities in the office market were put on hold.

Specifically, absorption in the March-end quarter was 2 million square feet of space, declining from 9.5 million square feet in the prior-year quarter.

Nonetheless, deliveries of premium properties and moderate demand in the first half of the quarter supported moderate growth in asking rents, improving 3.4% year over year. Additionally, vacancy rates shrunk 10 basis points year over year to 13%.

Boston Properties’ portfolio of premium office assets in high barrier-to-entry geographic markets is expected to have driven decent demand for its properties. In fact, in late January, the company announced a new 20-year lease with the reputed global elite law firm — Shearman & Sterling — at 599 Lexington Avenue in Midtown Manhattan.

Also, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter’s total revenues is pegged at $707.1 million, calling for 4.1% year-over-year growth.

However, the rampant coronavirus outbreak has also weakened travel demand, thereby impacting hotel revenues. Amid this, the company’s revenues from its hotels for first-quarter 2020 are expected to sequentially decline 24% to $8.95 million.

Also, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s first-quarter FFO per share has been revised marginally downward to $1.80 over the past 30 days. It suggests growth of 4.7% from the year-ago reported figure.

Key Development During the Quarter

In January, the company entered a joint venture (“JV”) with Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE - Free Report) to develop, own and operate 1.1 million square feet of existing office and lab properties in South San Francisco, CA. There is also the scope for expanding the campus though approximately 640,000 square feet of additional future development. Therefore, following the completion of the master development plan of a1.7-million-square-foot life-science campus, including a mix of office and lab buildings, is expected to be owned by the JV. Once completed, Boston Properties will enjoy a 50% ownership stake in the same.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model doesn’t predict a positive surprise in terms of FFO per share for Boston Properties this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better increases the odds of a FFO beat. But that’s not the case here.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Boston Properties has an Earnings ESP of -0.83%.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are a few stocks in the REIT sector that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to report a positive surprise this quarter:

CoreSite Realty Corporation (COR - Free Report) , slated to release first-quarter earnings on Apr 30, has an Earnings ESP of +3.19% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

Americold Realty Trust (COLD - Free Report) , expected to release earnings results on May 7, has an Earnings ESP of +9.74% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this write-up represents funds from operations (FFO) — a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs.

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